Vladimir Socor: Federalization of Moldova should be rejected
The conflict in Transnistria, a breakaway region of Moldova continues to be a subject of debate between Moldovan and Russian leadership. Although Moldova wants to have a comprehensive negotiation over the conflict, the talks in Vienna continue, but nothing practical has been achieved yet.
“After the ‘5+2’ talks resumed, certain negotiations were supposed to be restored, but such thing did not take place. That’s because Moscow and Tiraspol [so-called capital of Transnistria] did not agree upon the document regarding the basic patterns of the negotiations. Russia says that there are no negotiations yet, but only talks,” said Vladimir Socor, political analyst of East European Affairs for the Jamestown Foundation and its Eurasia Daily Monitor, in an exclusive interview to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
According to him, it is still too early to start negotiate Transnistria’s statute as an integral part of the Republic of Moldova. He believes that the international context is not favorable for the country.
“Within the ‘5+2’ talks, the United States have a very reluctant attitude; the European Union is concerned about its economic and financial problems, while Russia is ascending and seems more and more confident of its own power. Thus, the international framework is not convenient for us,” Mr. Socor explained.
The political expert thinks that federalization attempts of the region are not desired. Russia’s envoy to Transnistria, Dmitry Rogozin previously stated very frankly that Moldova can keep Transnistria only if a federation or confederation will be established and Russia to politically administrate the region.
“I believe [such a step] is totally wrong and should be simply rejected. It is one more reason why I think that negotiating the political statute of Transnistria at the moment is premature,” Vladimir Socor said.
Germany has an interest in this conflict on behalf of the European Union, thinks the analyst from Jamestown Foundation.
“Germany sees Transnistria as a potential test for Russia’s behavior. If Russia is willing to solve the issue in Transnistria, then Germany will ask to form a bilateral structure within the European Union, first as a consultative body and later as a decision-making body between the EU and Russia,” Mr. Socor claimed.
Transnistria is an internationally unrecognized entity proclaimed in Tiraspol on September 2, 1990, initially styled the Moldavian Transnistrian Soviet Socialist Republic. Currently known as the Moldavian Transnistrian Republic, this breakaway entity consists of a narrow strip of land (180 km by 32 km) nestled between the east bank of the Nistru River and the border of Moldova with Ukraine, on a small part of what used to be, between 1924 and 1940, the Moldavian Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic.
In 1992 escalated a conflict between Moldova and Russia over this territory. A cease-fire was signed the same year by president of Russia Boris Yeltsin and president of Moldova Mircea Snegur. An agreement to withdraw all Russian forces from the trans-Nistrian districts of the Republic of Moldova was signed by Moldovan Prime Minister Andrei Sangheli and Russian Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin in 1994. It stipulated that the 14th Army was to leave the Republic of Moldova within three years, but the agreement was never ratified by the Duma, Russia’s legislature.