STRATFOR: “Moldova's small size and strategic location is a main factor in the weakness of the state and its ability to balance between external powers”
The Eastern European former Soviet countries of Moldova, Ukraine, and Belarus are important to Russia for many reasons, “including geographic location and economic relations,” writes the American Agency for Analysis STRATFOR.
According to the source, these countries co-operate with Russia, but the level of co-operation varies. “Moldova is a country divided against itself, drawn in part to Western powers and in part to Moscow, and is likely to remain politically paralyzed for the short to medium term,” reports STRATFOR.
The global intelligence company writes that Russia finds important Moldova’s location. “It is near the strategic port of Odessa and the Crimean Peninsula, where Russia stations its Black Sea Fleet, and it serves as part of the energy transit network linking Russia with Europe and Turkey.”
The American publication informs that Russia has very strong ties with the party of former president of Moldova, the communist Vladimir Voronin, but the country has also established partnerships with the current administration from Chisinau.
According to STRATFOR, Russian Federation supports Transnistria. “Russia subsidizes the leadership in the breakaway region of Transnistria.”
The authors from the American agency also write that “Moldova depends on Russia for 100 percent of its natural gas and sends 20 percent of its exports to Russia,” referring to the massive wine exports which have previously been suspended for ‘political reasons’.
“Russia's goals for 2012 are to improve its position in Moldova proper by strengthening the Communist Party and forming independent relationships with Alliance for European Integration leaders and members. If Russia cannot help the Communists regain power, it at least wants to make sure Moldova remains divided and that the AEI remains incapable of electing a Western-oriented president. Moscow could accomplish this by complicating the political process and obstructing negotiations between Moldova and Transdniestria. Russia also wants to maintain its military presence and political influence in Transdniestria and begin laying the groundwork for Moldova's possible inclusion in the Eurasian Union,” writes STRATFOR.
The Agency concludes by saying that the territorial, political and geopolitical paralysis “can be expected to remain until an external power is able to contest Russia in the region in terms of hard power rather than soft power. This is not likely to happen in the short to medium term.”
STRATFOR is a provider of geopolitical analysis. It has been founded in 1996 by George Friedman, the chief intelligence officer.
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