Poll shows Moldovans losing interest in EU, warming up to Russia
RFE/RL/ Chisinau -- A new poll shows Moldovans are losing interest in the post-Soviet country's European integration and are warming up to the idea of joining a Commonwealth of Independent States' (CIS) free-trade zone led by Russia, RFE/RL's Moldovan Service reports.
The poll -- published in Chisinau on November 16 -- showed that the number of Moldovans willing to join the European Union has dropped 15 percent since a similar poll in May, falling to 47 percent.
That is the lowest percentage of EU support measured in Moldova in nearly a decade.
Likewise, 46 percent of respondents said their country would benefit economically from joining the Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan customs union, while 34 percent favored entering the EU's free-trade zone.
More than 60 percent of Moldovans believe Russia should be their country's "main strategic partner," while just 23 percent prefer the EU.
The new opinion poll was published by the Moldova's West-leaning think tank Institutul de Politici Publice (IPP) with financing from the Soros Foundation and was performed in late October and early November by the CBS-AXA polling center.
Moldova is a CIS member and one of the six former Soviet republics covered by the EU's Eastern Partnership program, which promises tighter integration with the EU in exchange for economic and democratic reforms.
In an interview with RFE/RL today, IPP Director Arcadie Barbarosie said the Moldovans' new "Euroskepticism" was most likely caused by the economic downturn in the EU and by people's disenchantment with the vocally pro-European ruling coalition in Chisinau, the Alliance for European Integration.
Chisinau's pro-EU government hopes to start negotiating a free-trade agreement with Brussels before the end of the year and to obtain visa-free travel for its citizens inside the 27-member bloc as early as next year.
The poll also shows a record percentage of Moldovans (83.5 percent) saying their country is heading in the wrong direction and a status quo in support for the country's main political parties, which have failed in parliament during the last two years to elect a full-time president of the country.
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The main findings of November 2011 POB are the following:
- * 83.5% of Moldovans believe the country is going in the wrong direction; only 10.7% think the country is on the right path. The perception that the country is on a wrong track went up from 65% in May 2011;
- * around 76% of Moldovans have stated that they consider themselves poor by aggregated family income vs. 24% not poor; the latter figure is up by 2% compared to May 2011;
- * 63.2% of Moldovans believe that there are no guarantees of personal security in the country (reflecting an endemic mistrust vis-a-vis law enforcement institutions and justice system);
- * 78.4% of Moldovans believe that the country is not governed "by the will of the people" (reflecting an endemic mistrust vis-a-vis political parties and disillusionment with the pace of political and economic change);
- * top three issues of grave concern to Moldovans: 88.5% are extremely concerned over price increases for natural gas; 69.4% are extremely concerned over the issue of electing the country's President; 61% are extremely concerned over school closures (NB in the context of our Education project);
- * over 60% of Moldovans think the country should be governed by a single party; only 14% believe a coalition is an optimal solution;
- * over 35% of Moldovans would prefer the old Soviet system, 31% are in favor of Western-style democracies, 19% favor the current Russian political system and only 13% believe the current Moldovan system is the preferable way forward;
- * 47% of Moldovans would vote for European integration if a referendum was held tomorrow; down from 62% in May 2011;
- * in a referendum with two options 45.6% of Moldovans would vote for integration with the Belarus-Russia-Kazakhstan union vs. 33.8% for integration in the EU;
- * The Church, mass-media and local public administration top the list of institutions with the highest trust with 80%, 57% and 50% respectively. The most mistrusted institutions are: political parties (83%), Parliament (83%), Presidency (76%) and Justice (75%)
- * Vlad Filat, Prime-Minister and leader of the Liberal-Democratic Party and Vladimir Voronin, leader of the Communist Party remain the most trusted political leaders with 43% and 36% respectively. Incumbent Acting President Lupu stands at 26%;
- * The most trusted political party is the Party of Communists (39.1%), followed by the Liberal-Democratic Party (38.4%), Liberal Party (26.8%) and Democratic Party (23.9%)
- * Of those voters that stated their political preference: 44.9% would vote for the Party of Communists (PC), 24.6% for Liberal-Democratic Party (LDPM), 16.2% for LiberalParty (LP) and 10.6% for Democratic Party (DP), if elections were held tomorrow. Factoring in the undecided voters the results of an early election would maintain the current parliamentary status-quo: PC - 41 seats; LDPM - 26 seats; LP - 19 seats; DP - 15 seats.
RFE/RL; IPP
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