Mr. Obama Goes to Moscow
By Dr. M. J. Williams
President Obama is off to Moscow in hopes of ‘resetting’ U.S.-Russia relations. But there is little reason to expect that the trip will produce a positive change in the relationship. At best, Russia regards the United States as a peer competitor; more often, it seems to see us as an enemy. While it is in America’s interest to forge closer ties with Russia, U.S. policymakers are likely to find that, on the issues that matter most to the United States, Russia has little to offer.
One of those issues is the war in Afghanistan. A serious question facing the Administration is whether it will be able to ensure safe access into Afghanistan, should current routes through Pakistan be jeopardized by political unrest. Russia has granted the United States and its allies transit rights for supplies passing into the land-locked country.
At first blush, this might look like an example of U.S.-Russian cooperation. But Russia has also worked to oust the United States from its base in Kyrgyzstan. By cultivating positive relationships in Central Asia, the Kremlin fears that Washington will be able to retain a long-term military presence in a region that Moscow views as its special geopolitical reserve. Thus, while the Russians seem helpful regarding Afghanistan – and to some extent they are – they are also attempting to establish themselves as the sole route of access into and out of the country.
Moscow is playing a similar game on Iran. Obama would like Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to pressure Tehran to suspend its nuclear program or open it up to international inspection and safeguards. This should be an easy sell; after all, the emergence of a nuclear-armed Iran is not in Russia’s long-term interest. But Moscow makes a good deal of money supplying Iran with nuclear technology.
Should Iran discontinue its program, Russia would get a deterioration in relations with Iran and less money from technology sales, while America would get a diplomatic breakthrough and, with time, better relations with Iran. Not surprisingly, the Russians regard this as a negative outcome.
Related to Iran is the issue of missile defense. After taking office, President Obama attempted to link continued U.S. development of the third site in Poland and the Czech Republic to Russian assistance on Iran. The missile defense program is costly and technologically unproven. It may prove useful in the unfolding “Great Game” with Moscow, but the President should be careful not to give the impression that he views American relations with America’s Central European allies as a bargaining chip for obtaining concessions from Russia elsewhere. He should be wary of sending a similar message about NATO expansion. Clearly, the Alliance needs to seriously re-assess the long-term viability and costs and benefits of expansion; but that is a matter for the Alliance, not Russia, to determine.
In the age of Obama, it is easy to be optimistic about America’s ability to effectively address nearly every conceivable issue facing the country, and relations with Russia are no exception. Russia is not America’s enemy. We need Moscow to help in the fight against terror, to maintain stability in Central Asia and to navigate the transition to a more complex international environment. But until the Russians themselves realize that the West is their friend and not their enemy, it will be difficult to make progress on any issue which the Russians consider a zero-sum game. So before trying to fix Iran, Afghanistan and energy security, the President would do well to focus on the details of replacing the SALT Treaty and on renewing the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty. Wins on these two issues would lay a solid foundation on which to build a joint approach to bigger questions down the road. America and Russia need to learn to walk together before we can run a marathon together.
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Dr. M. J. Williams is a Senior Associate Scholar at the Center for European Policy Analysis and an Assistant Professor of International Relations at the University of London in England. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Center for European Policy Analysis.
Center for European Policy Analysis
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