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Frozen conflicts ring Black Sea region

December 23, 2006
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By Leon Mangasarian

Berlin - The Black Sea region's frozen conflicts are unresolved wars or disputes which involve Russia. They include Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

All four of these territories are diplomatically unrecognized mini-"states" which have split off from other countries which were parts of the former Soviet Union.

Abkhazia and South Ossetia have both left Georgia, Nagorno- Karabakh is legally part of Azerbaijan but has split off with Armenian assistance, and Transnistria has seceded from Moldova.

With the European Union due to extend its borders to the Black Sea after the planned admission of Bulgaria and Romania on January 1, 2007, the frozen conflicts are poised to gain greater attention in Europe's capitals.

Romanian President Traian Basescu warns that the frozen conflicts are a threat to the EU not least as breeding grounds for organized crime, human-trafficking and drug-smuggling.

A German Marshall Fund study terms the conflicts "an unresolved legacy of the Soviet empire" and warns they "threaten the periphery of a continent composed of secure democracies."

Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt says in his blog that "all of them have the potential to destabilize a wider region if they flare up again."

Although Russia's role can be seen to varying degrees in all the frozen conflicts, Russian President Vladimir Putin vigorously denies any role in stirring up problems in the region.

"They have nothing to do with Russian machinations," said Putin at a summit with European Union leaders in Finland last October, adding, "Don't try to blame us for what we can't do because in the post- Soviet space we have quite a few frozen conflicts."

Moscow backs breakaway Transnistria both economically and with troops from its 14th Army which are stationed in the territory guarding a huge munitions supply.

"With Russian support, the Transnistrian leader, Igor Smirnov, has little incentive to compromise in his drive towards independence," a report by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group says.

Smirnov, who has run Transnistria since 1991, won a fourth term in elections earlier this month.

Russia has also supported the breakaway Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Georgia accuses Russian peacekeeping troops of siding with the separatists in both provinces.

The Russian state backs Armenia without which Nagorno-Karabakh could not survive either militarily or economically.

"Over half its army are believed to be Armenian citizens," the International Crisis Group says.

Despite ongoing attempts to mediate a diplomatic deal, voters in Nagorno-Karabakh this month overwhelmingly backed a draft constitution which describes the territory as a sovereign state.

Over 500,000 Azeris have been displaced from the region since 1994 when it came under the control of Armenian and ethnic Armenian forces during a war. Since then an uneasy truce has been in place.

Armenia and Azerbaijan are debating the possibility of allowing a referendum to determine the future status of Nargorno-Karabakh. // © 2006 DPA

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