Central Europe’s Emerging Far-Right

June 12, 2009

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By Eva M. Blaszczynski & Peter B. Doran, Analysts at the Center for European Policy Analysis

Executive Summary

The June 2009 European Parliamentary (EP) elections highlighted a worrisome trend in Central European politics. Alarmed by the global economic crisis but skeptical of their leaders’ ability to present a solution, regional electorates turned out in low numbers to vote. The combination of economic anxiety and voter apathy provided an unexpected boon to parties on the edges of the political mainstream. In addition to strong antiminority platforms, many of these parties harbor intense animosity for the European Union (EU) and NATO. Though the gains of Far-Right parties in the EP were small, the June elections could be a harbinger of further success on upcoming national ballots. The surge in extremist sentiment coincides with a period of EU institutional introspection and U.S. disengagement from the Central European region. Together, these factors could create the conditions for social instability and retrograde movement in regional politics. The EU and United States should move to staunch the spread of extremist politics in Central Europe.

Central Europe’s Toxic Fringe

Most Central European voters chose to sit out this year’s EP elections. At 31 percent, voter turnout in the region was measurably lower than in Western Europe, where 43 percent of the public voted.1 The low numbers are a product mainly of mounting public skepticism in post-Communist Europe about the ability of national governments and EU institutions to offset the effects of the ongoing economic crisis. Flagging public confidence in regional leaders and institutions, combined with voter apathy, allowed Far-Right and extremist parties like Hungary’s Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik) to win seats in the EP for the first time.

In the final tally, the gains of Far-Right parties in Central Europe were lower than some observers had anticipated. However, expressions of extremist sentiment are becoming increasingly common in the political discourse of many Central European countries. Ahead of this year’s EP elections, for example, a newspaper associated with the Greater Romania Party declared, “You the Jews have caused the world economic crisis.”2 In the Czech Republic, the Far-Right National Party ran televised ads calling for “a final solution to the Gypsy issue.”3 A February 2009 survey by the American Anti- Defamation League found that 54 percent of Polish respondents felt it was “probably true” that “Jews have too much power in international financial markets.”4 In Hungary, 67 percent of respondents agreed it was “probably true” that “Jews have too much power in the business world.”

These attitudes are not new. They have existed in all European countries for centuries and, though greatly weakened over time, have persisted into the modern era. What appears to be changing, however, especially in Central Europe, is the widening appeal that these sentiments enjoy among the public, the frequency with which they are circulated in the mainstream media and the political expression they are finding through voter support for extremist parties. These trends are more evident in some Central European countries than others. Surveying the region, five countries – Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Latvia and Lithuania – stand out as especially worrisome. In all five cases, some combination of the following conditions is present:

(1) Non-mainstream parties have gained a foothold in a governing coalition.
(2) Non-mainstream parties are gaining representational strength in the European Parliament.
(3) Unemployment (year-on-year) is worsening.
(4) The political, business and civic spaces are marked by persistent corruption.
(5) There is an elevated incidence of violence toward minority groups.

Where these factors are present, non-mainstream political attitudes are gathering momentum and could gain traction in future national elections; where they are present, the EU is arguably underperforming in its moderating institutional role; and where they are present, the costs of continued U.S. disengagement from the region are likely to be high. In three of these countries (Hungary, Bulgaria and Slovakia), conditions are most conducive to a Far-Right or extremist agenda. In two others (Latvia and Lithuania), long-standing ethnic friction and an especially severe economic downturn warrant close attention.

Hungary

In Hungary, the effects of the economic crisis have been exceptionally severe. In November 2008, the government was forced to seek nearly $16 billion in assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stabilize the economy and prevent a balanceof- payments crisis. Unemployment is at its highest level in 11 years (8 percent).5 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to contract by 3.3 percent in 2009. The extent of the downturn appears to have triggered public disillusionment with Hungary’s current government and increased the appeal of Far-Right groups such as Jobbik. The party’s platform includes a rejection of foreign “ownership” of the economy and Hungarian participation in trans-Atlantic security initiatives.6 The party has been accused of campaigning on an anti-Roma, xenophobic, anti-Semitic platform. The paramilitary Hungarian Guard, a close affiliate of Jobbik, is aggressively promoting its plank of “safeguarding Hungarian culture and traditions,” while evoking the imagery of the country’s fascist-era Arrow Cross militia.7 Jobbik failed to win seats in either the 2004 EP elections or the 2006 national parliamentary election. But during the 2009 EP elections, it placed third with almost 15 percent of the vote. The party’s rapid rise comes amid growing violence toward Roma and other minorities in Hungary. Over the past year, at least seven Roma have been killed as a result of racial violence. The acts occurred at a moment of proliferating cultural stereotypes, which appear to have been fueled by the economic downturn. More importantly, Jobbik appears to be attracting voters from both sides of the political spectrum. Its recent EU parliamentary gains were made possible by the unexpected support of traditionally left-leaning regions of the country.8 The widened support base raises the prospect of Jobbik crossing the parliamentary threshold when Hungary holds national elections early next year.

Bulgaria

Similar factors appear to be driving the growth of extremist attitudes in Bulgaria. This year, the country’s economy is expected to contract by 2 percent, down from 6 percent growth in 2008. Unemployment is up from 6.3 to 9.5 percent. Increasing joblessness and a stalling economy have heightened popular perceptions of official corruption and mismanagement. In 2008, Brussels suspended $800 million in aid to Sofia under a cloud of corruption charges. The country is ranked last among all EU countries on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index.9 As in Hungary, parties of the Far-Right have profited from the atmosphere of economic malaise and public discontent. A particular cause for concern is the rapid rise in popularity of the hypernationalist Ataka party. The year it was founded (2005), Ataka won 8.9 percent of the vote in national parliamentary elections. Under the banner of anti-corruption and “Bulgaria back to Bulgarians!” the party seeks to reverse post-Communist privatization, withdraw from NATO, expel foreign troops based in the country and impose “severe sanctions” on anyone “defaming Bulgaria.”10 In the EP elections, the party won 12 percent of the vote, enough to seat 2 members. If this trend continues, Ataka could attract enough support in next month’s national elections to enter into a governing coalition with Boiko Borissov’s Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria.

Slovakia

Slovakia has made steady progress toward economic stability and political reform. On January 1, 2009, for example, Slovakia became only the second former Communist country to adopt the Euro (after Slovenia). As a result, the country was relatively immune to the currency volatility that has rattled Europe’s other emerging markets. However, national unemployment levels have jumped from 7.7 percent in 2008 to 11.5 percent this year – the fourth largest increase in Central Europe. The Far-Right Slovak National Party (SNS) is a member of the governing coalition. In its most recent report, the European Commission Against Racism and Intolerance (ECRI) noted with concern the “rise in racist political discourse by some politicians targeting primarily Hungarians as well as Roma and Jewish people...since the coalition government comprising the Slovak National Party took power in 2006.”11 The ECRI specifically cited comments by Slovakian Minister of Justice Stefan Harabin from September 2008 comparing a Jewish Member of Parliament to “certain Nazis who had Jewish ancestors and managed to participate in the murdering of innocent children, women and old men in concentration camps, just to prove their loyalty to fascism.”12 During the 2009 EP elections, SNS garnered just over 5 percent of the vote – enough to seat one MEP. A toxic political discourse, a mixed record of protection for members of the Roma minority and rising unemployment (projected to top 12.5 percent by 2010) – all warrant close attention ahead of Slovakia’s upcoming national elections in June 2010.

Latvia

As the country hit hardest in the economic crisis, Latvia’s prospects for near-term recovery are bleak. The country was one of the first Central European economies to require loan assistance from the IMF and EU. Unemployment in Latvia has risen faster and higher than in any other post-Communist country and now tops 15 percent. The country’s GDP is expected to contract by 18-20 percent this year – the steepest decline in Central Europe. The economic turmoil comes amid sustained tensions with the country’s minority groups and a rise in public displays of xenophobia and anti- Semitism.13 Neo-Nazi groups have incited acts of violence and racist speech, resulting in the desecration of Jewish cemeteries and racially-motivated attacks against Roma and other minorities. According to ECRI, Latvia’s minority groups largely distrust local law enforcement, believing themselves inadequately protected and, in some instances, racially profiled. Conversely, Latvian police provided heavy protection for Latvia’s Waffen SS veterans (“Latvian Legion”) as they marched through Riga in 2008.14 Although the current center-right government does not include a Far-Right or extremist party in the coalition, Latvia’s citizenship, language and education laws have been criticized for disenfranchising ethnic Russians and immigrants.15 If financial turmoil persists, Latvia could see a rise in public protests against the government and an elevated risk of violence from neo-Nazi groups.

Lithuania

Despite Lithuania’s reputation as a leading center of scholarship on Judaism, the country’s public discourse is marked by occasional outbursts of anti-Semitic rhetoric. In 2004, Respublika, a national newspaper, produced a front-page cartoon depicting a globe and two individuals – one identified as Jewish, the other as a homosexual – under the headline, “Who Controls the World?”16 A Vilnius District Court eventually ordered Respublika’s publisher to pay $1,200 for instigating ethnic and religious hatred.17 In recent months, there have been neo-Nazi rallies, acts of vandalism against Jewish community centers and – in February – Mardi Gras parades with displays blaming Jews for the global financial crisis.18 The Lithuanian Jewish Community and Union of Former Ghetto and Concentration Camp Prisoners have decried government attempts to investigate anti-Nazi Jewish partisans for “crimes against humanity” during the German occupation of Lithuania.19 The State Prosecutor’s office has denied the allegation. To date, Far-Right or extremist parties have not passed the electoral threshold for membership in the Lithuanian parliament. However, the shock of massive job losses has hit the country especially hard, stoking popular anger and mistrust of the government. In a single year, national unemployment has risen from 5.8 to 15 percent, while real GDP (year-on-year) is projected to fall 12 percent by 2010. In the days ahead, Lithuania’s center-right government will likely face voter discontent over its handling of the economic crisis – unhappiness that could find expression in increased support for non-mainstream movements.

The Perils of Central European Extremism

The heightened appeal of non-mainstream political parties is not unique to Central Europe. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilder’s Dutch Freedom Party (PVV) has managed to translate EU enlargement fatigue and public anxiety over immigration into support for a Far-Right xenophobic political agenda. The PVV took second place in the 2009 EP elections. Wilder has promised to “abolish the European parliament” when MEPs are seated in July.20 Elsewhere, the United Kingdom’s British National Party (BNP) has won its first-ever seat in the EU parliament on a campaign to withdraw from the EU and NATO.21 Austria’s Far-Right Freedom Party scored a similar victory. All told, in the wake of this year’s elections, non-mainstream parties will control about 50 seats (7 percent) in the European Parliament. Far-Right groups from the UK, France, the Netherlands, Austria, Italy and Hungary have already announced their intention to cooperate within the EP. With time, Far-Right parties could form a “toxic bloc” inside the legislative body.

The implications of this trend for the EU are significant. Following ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, the EP will have a greater say over policy- and law-making in Europe. If Far-Right parties are able to establish a firm foothold in the legislative body, they could amplify a non-mainstream political agenda and potentially disrupt or dilute legislation intended to advance EU integration or trans-Atlantic cooperation. Success in European elections elevates the profile of extremist parties at home, providing legitimization for Far-Right platforms, filling party coffers and enlarging the voter base for future elections.

Recommendations

The EU should expand upon existing ECRI initiatives aimed at improving ethnic relations and strengthening legal protections for minorities in key Central European member states. Key policy recommendations include:

- Closing the gap between anti-discrimination laws and on-the-ground enforcement. This is true for all member states, but especially applicable to countries with significant minority populations.

- Strengthening the EU’s oversight capacity for protecting minorities and enforcing human, legal, economic and religious rights at the national level.

- Providing greater financial incentives for national governments to integrate minority groups into society. Funding already exists for civil society groups to promote anti-discrimination initiatives. The EU should go further by expanding its funding commitment for national-government programs. Conversely, the EU should be willing to withhold structural funds from member states that show an unwillingness to tackle these issues.22

While the primary responsibility for addressing these issues lies with the EU and its individual member states, there is an important role for the United States to play in checking the spread of extremist politics in Central Europe. Historically, robust U.S. engagement in the region has helped insulate centrist parties from the influence of nonmainstream alternatives. Throughout the 1990s, Washington provided post-Communist countries with billions of dollars in aid for democratization and capacity-building. More recently, the U.S. Agency for International Development has provided critical funding for programs to promote the inclusion and integration of the Roma population in Central Europe. The continuation and, if possible, expansion of such programs could help to encourage sustained reform in the region.

Effective governance is the first, best and most reliable response to voter apathy, or worse, outright anger. Centrist governments and their counterparts in the opposition will require the vocal and creative support of the EU and the United States to eliminate the temptation to co-opt parties outside of the political mainstream. If Far-Right parties are able to gain a foothold in Europe’s governing institutions, their success could contribute to the spread of extremist politics across the Central European region. Should this trend continue, the pro-Western leaders who have guided Central Europe’s political and economic transformation for the past twenty years could find themselves sharing the political space with a new class of political elites who oppose NATO and the EU, distrust global markets and harbor intolerant views of ethnic minorities. Such an outcome would damage U.S. interests in Europe, pose serious obstacles to continued European integration and erode the hard-won gains of Central Europe’s post- Communist transition.

---
1 New York Times, “For East Europeans, E.U. Elections a Big Yawn,” June 9, 2009.
2 European Jewish Congress, "Anti-Semitism Worldwide 2008/09," 2009, available from
http://www.eurojewcong.org/ejc/DOC/general_analysis2008_2009.pdf (accessed June 4, 2009).
3 BBC World Service, "Czechs shocked by anti-Roma TV ad," May 21, 2009.
4 For the full report, see: Anti-Defamation League, "Attitudes Toward Jews in Seven European Countries," February 2009; available from http://www.adl.org/Public%20ADL%20Anti-
Semitism%20Presentation%20February%202009%20_3_.pdf (accessed June 3, 2009).
5 Economic data used for this report originates from the IMF, “World Economic Outlook 2009,”
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/pdf/text.pdf (accessed June 2, 2009), and The Economist
Intelligence Unit, http://www.eiu.com/index.asp?rf=0 (accessed June 2, 2009).
6 For more information see http://www.jobbik.com/?p=262 (accessed June 3, 2009) and ECRI, “Fourth Report on Hungary,” available at http://hudoc.ecri.coe.int/XMLEcri/ENGLISH/Cycle_04/04_CbC_eng/HUN-CbC-IV-2009-003-ENG.pdf February 2009 (accessed June 3, 2009).
7 The New York Times, “Hungarian Extremists Reflect Discontent and Add to It,” October 24, 2007.
8 The Budapest Times, “The political effects of the European elections,” June 12, 2009.
9 Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index 2008, available at
http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2008 (accessed June 3, 2009).
10 For more information see http://www.ataka.bg/en/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=14&Itemid=27 (accessed June 4, 2009).
11 ECRI, “Fourth Report on Slovakia,” available at http://www.coe.int/t/dghl/monitoring/ecri/Country-bycountry/Slovakia/SVK-CbC-IV-2009-020-ENG.pdf February 2008 (accessed June 3, 2009).
12 U.S. Department of State, Human Rights Report 2008, available at
http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/hrrpt/2008/eur/119104.htm (accessed June 5, 2009).
13 For more on information, and detailed findings which serve as the basis for this report, see ECRI “Third Report on Latvia,” available at http://hudoc.ecri.coe.int/XMLEcri/ENGLISH/Cycle_03/03_CbC_eng/LVA-CbC-III-2008-2-ENG.pdf February 12, 2008 (accessed June 3, 2009).
14 European Jewish Congress, “Hundreds march in Latvia to commemorate Waffen SS unit”
http://www.eurojewcong.org/ejc/news.php?id_article=1336 March 17, 2008 (accessed June 4, 2009).
15 Freedom House, Freedom in the World, available from
http://www.freedomhouse.org/inc/content/pubs/fiw/inc_country_detail.cfm?year=2007&country=7212&pf
(accessed June 9, 2009).
16 Anti-Defamation League, “Lithuania Must Stand Up Against Anti-Semitism”,
http://www.adl.org/ADL_Opinions/Anti_Semitism_Global/20090313-Jewish+Standard.htm March 13, 2009
(accessed June 4, 2009).
17 The Baltic Times, “Respublika publisher found guilty of anti-Semitism,” available from
http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/13051/ (accessed June 4, 2009).
18 The Jewish Daily Forward, “Jews Parade on the Streets of Vilna,” February 8, 2009, available from
http://www.forward.com/articles/12634/ (accessed June 4, 2009).
19 The Jewish Community of Lithuania, “Open Letter,” August 28, 2008,
http://www.litjews.org/Default.aspx?Element=ViewArticle&ArticleID=1700&TopicID=2&Lang=EN (accessed June 10, 2009); See the State Prosecutor's response to the allegations,
http://www.prokuraturos.lt/News/OPENLETTEROFTHEJEWISHCOMMUNITY/tabid/272/Default.aspx
(accessed June 10, 2009).
20 The Guardian, “Anti-Immigrant and Europhobic- far right parties ride populist wave,” May 27, 2009.
21 British National Party, http://bnp.org.uk/policies (accessed June 5, 2009).
22 Ryan Barnes, "Central Europe's Far-Right: Gaining Strength in Troubled Times," Central Europe Digest, May 1, 2009 http://cepa.org/digest/central-europes-far-right-gaining-strength-in-troubled-times.php.

A publication by the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)

Tags : Eu, NATO, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Hungary, Latvia, Slovakia, Economic Crisis, June 2009 European Parliamentary Elections, Central Europe, Far-Right Parties, CEPA

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